Here Comes Santa! The Issachar Fund is fully invested in growth stocks, expecting Santa to deliver more profits! While the market climbs a “wall of worry” (debt, deficit war, etc.), growth stocks have been breaking out on above-average volume and holding gains. This is a positive character change from earlier this year when “breakouts” failed, creating many “paper cut” losses. This is the most bullish I have been all year, as the market has been rewarding risk-takers. I have been “trading up” by selling weaker stocks for stronger ones (weed & feed), expecting to capture more gains while the uptrend lasts. I purchased a small position in gold, but it did not perform as expected, so I sold it for a better opportunity. We have been participating in the cryptocurrency rally as investors anticipate the launch of several Bitcoin ETFs, which could be a big win. While big governments may suppress physical gold prices (viewed as a threat to dollars/fiat money), they cannot manipulate “digital gold” or Bitcoin prices. I see a lot of “big money” repositioning itself in the crypto space, so I am looking for ways to participate. Money flowing in off the money market sidelines (liquidity) has been stellar, and I expect it to continue. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have barely given up recent gains near their all-time high resistance lines! A sideways price consolidation on low volume over time is as good as it gets, so I am encouraged that this bull may have more legs to run. The “breath” or number of stocks participating in this rally has broadened instead of being concentrated in seven big tech stocks (Magnificent Seven). Better breath (more stocks joining the party) is always welcome for a healthy, sustainable bull market.
The government reported 199,000 jobs were created last month on Friday, and the market celebrated! However, 87,000 (44%) jobs were government sector jobs, which does not contribute to productivity gains. The auto workers and motion picture strikers returned to work, representing 47,000 or 24% of the total, so job creation was not so great. The government will likely revise the 199k down next month as they have done for nine of the last ten reports, so can we trust the government to tell us the truth?
Our National Debt is expected to reach $34 trillion before Christmas, with $1 trillion of interest expense due next year! Congress spent and added about $1 trillion of debt in the last three months, which is unprecedented. Interest is expected to be one-fourth of our 2024 budget, so all tax revenue will be used to pay interest on debt we already spent. We will never default on our national debt if the Fed is allowed to print more fiat money. Printing money creates more inflation, devaluing the dollar and leading to less purchasing power. Prices can only increase.
California posted its biggest budget deficit as tax revenue declined due to residents fleeing the highest-taxed state to zero taxes like Texas and Florida! States can’t print money like the Fed to balance budgets, so I expect States to raise taxes and cut services. There will be a huge reconning, but not until there is enough pain to cause significant changes, like in Argentina. Argentina voted out socialism (140% inflation) and welcomed capitalism because it works. Like all other high-risk periods, the market will tell us when to exit. Institutional money hires the brightest minds to navigate their big ships, but they can’t turn on a dime like smaller boats can. It takes them weeks to months to reposition their portfolio, so I plan to ride their waves and get out before it crashes.
Bottom line: We are fully invested and expect the bull market to continue into 2024! Investors have been rewarded for taking risks in this “risk on” environment. Bull markets climb a wall of worry, and debt and deficits are not bothering the market. There will be a price for this irresponsible spending, but the market is choosing to ignore the inevitable train wreck. This is a bullish seasonality period, and we are over-bought and extended, but I expect the indexes to break out shortly because breakouts have been working. The longer the inverted yield curve (short rates higher and long rates) persists, the higher the probability of a recession, but for now, a soft landing is in the cards. I do not believe it is too late to get in if you feel like you have missed the party, especially if the indexes break out because sideline money will help the market “melt-up” into 2024. Stop losses (risk management) are implemented to help avoid life-changing losses. Grace and Peace to Everyone! Jesus is Alive, and Christmas is His birthday!
Today, in the town of David, a Savior has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord. Luke 2:11
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., a member of FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.
Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the Fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com. 3607-NLD-12/11/2023