Breaking the 50! The Issachar Fund holds about 15% in growth stocks and 85% in a high-yielding short-term fixed-income ETF! A few stocks hit price sell stops, so I exercised discipline and sold them even though they were still fundamentally strong. I buy stocks with great fundamentals (accelerating earnings and sales) and technical chart patterns, but I sell when stocks do not meet my expectations. After 33 years of actively managing risk, the most valuable lesson I learned is to sell any position that falls 5-8% below my cost. I try to let my leaders run and take profits in the 20% range. The market decides all buy and sell prices, but we choose how much we are willing to lose. The market is weak and trending lower, so I am not eager to buy at these levels. While I may have opinions about where the market is headed, I respond to what the charts say because price pays, and the price is always right. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes broke below their 50-day moving average on above-average volume Friday, indicating risk is rising! Treasury yields rose at a fast clip for most of 2022 and have been rising at an accelerated pace since July 2023. Congress continues to deficit spend with no debt ceiling approaching $33 trillion of national debt. Here are some all-time high records we should not be proud of: $17.1 trillion in household debt, $12.0 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, $1.6 trillion in student loans, and $1.0 trillion in credit card debt. The average house payment is about to hit $3,000/month for the first time in history. Oil prices are up ~40% in 4 months, mortgage rates hit 7.5%, and credit card rates are at a record 25%. This is not sustainable, and borrowing more debt is not the solution to high inflation.
The Fed dropped its balance sheet of bonds by another $3 billion last week! The more bonds they sell, the more pressure they put on higher rates, and the more likely inflation will continue to rise. The Fed will decide Wednesday if they will continue to raise rates to fight the inflation they created. CME Fed Futures ascribe a 98% chance the Fed will not raise rates on Wednesday. Remember, the Fed printed “free money” to buy bonds the Treasury issued to cover the debt Congress continues to increase. I believe rates will continue to rise because the world sees the trouble we are facing, and foreign bond buyers will demand higher rates for the risk they are taking. I do not know how we can get out of this mess without hyperinflation to devalue the dollar and the $33 trillion we already spent.
Bottom line: We are in, but the risk is rising, and we could be out or hedged if things get ugly. The recent bull market leaders are rolling over on big volume, and this kind of distribution concerns me. Oil prices are trending higher, which puts pressure on higher inflation, so the Fed can’t lower rates unless they put us in a recession. The auto unions demand higher wages to produce gas vehicles, while the Biden administration wants everyone to buy electric cars. Sometimes, hate and evil seem to win, but we win in the end, and love conquers all. Grace and Peace to everyone!
- Open/Transfer an online account or purchase LIOTX @ Schwab, Fidelity, TDA, etc.
- Questions, comments, or concerns: Dexter@IssacharFund.com, Office: 337-983-0676.
- 2020: 1st full year of Biblically Responsible Investing (BRI) Strategy
Love is patient and kind; love does not envy or boast; it is not arrogant or rude. It does not insist on its own way; it is not irritable or resentful; it does not rejoice at wrongdoing but rejoices with the truth. Love bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things. 1 Corinthians 13:4-7
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.
Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com. 3358/NLD/09/18/2023