Update: 08-28-23

Defense!  The Issachar Fund remains 100% (on defense) invested in a short-term fixed-income ETF! All major stock indexes are trading below their 50-day Moving Averages (DMA), so uptrends are broken, and correction risk has increased. Every bear market (>20% decline) was preceded by a correction (>10% decline), so I prefer to err on the side of caution and play defense. When the market finds a new supply of liquidity and creates a Follow Through Day (FTD), I will look for something to buy. Investors Business Daily (IBD) defines an FTD as a 1% index gain on higher volume at least four days after a stock market bottom. IBD research shows that an FTD preceded every bull market in the last 100 years, so I will heed the higher stock market risk and patiently wait for a better reason (FTD) to buy stocks. I do not believe in a buy-and-hold passive strategy but in actively managing risk to avoid life-changing losses. I like to buy fundamentally sound stocks with two consecutive quarters of accelerating earnings and sales from proper pivot points (price consolidations) trading above their 50 DMA. I use a form of technical analysis known as “chart analysis” to help identify trends and lines of support and resistance. I try to let the stock chart action pull me in when it is time to buy and push me out when it is time to sell. Now is a time to be patient and let the market dictate our next move. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

In the wake of a poor 30-year Treasury bond auction, Treasury bond yields are now at their highest level in over 15 years, as the 10-year Treasury bond hit 4.33% intraday last Thursday! The short end of the yield curve has also risen. Homebuilders’ confidence is slipping as mortgage rates are approaching 8%, the highest since 2000. Our debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 119%. In the year 2000, it was 50%. Over the next six months, $1.8 trillion in bonds will be issued to cover the deficit. Existing home sales just fell to their lowest levels since 2010. Over the last year, existing home sales have been down 16.6%. Ironically, we will need lower rates for housing prices to fall. Interest rate CUTS are now no longer expected to begin until JUNE 2024. Three months ago, futures were pricing in up to FOUR rate cuts in 2023 alone. Meanwhile, the odds of an additional rate hike this year remain near 44%. Markets are preparing for a LONG Fed pause. Higher for longer is back. It’s becoming more apparent that the Fed’s job is still far from done.

Bottom line: Issachar is on defense, waiting for an FTD before we consider buying. NVDA announced impressive earnings due to Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand for their chips, and the stock went up but finished lower. Other leading AI stocks have experienced bear market declines, so we may have seen the top in the stock market for 2023. Rates and inflation have been rising, and the market is trending lower. High-volume declines on the NASDAQ, followed by low-volume advances, make for a shaky foundation, so caution is warranted. The NASDAQ 100 tech index hit resistance at its 50 DMA and bounced lower. The Fed reduced its balance sheet by another $7 billion last week as they continue to remove liquidity from the system fighting inflation, so no help from the Fed. Grace and Peace to everyone!

Links: Performance, Fact Sheet & Strategy, Blogs, My Story, Docs, BRI

Issachar: A Buy & Hold Alternative Actively Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds in Christ Jesus. Philippians 4:6-7

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com.   Review Code: 3325-NLD-08/28/2023

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