Market Update: 04-17-23

The Issachar Fund is still about 33% invested, about 20% in a physical Gold ETF, and the remainder in growth stocks! I made no changes last week as gold flirts with an all-time high price resistance of around $2,000/oz. Yields continued to rise, which may have caused the dollar to bounce and put pressure on gold since gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions (inversely correlated). Gold dropped about -2% on Friday, but it was on below-average volume, unlike the above-average volume price gains it accumulated since the start of the rally in March. I believe gold will continue to trend higher because of de-dollarizing global macro forces and inflation. During periods of high inflation, investors seek hard assets like gold and silver as a store of value, while paper currencies lose purchasing power. Gold may pause to digest recent gains, but the fundamentals support higher prices. I believe we could be in a long-awaited bull market in gold and gold stocks. If I am wrong, I do not plan to stay wrong. I always focus on price and volume confirmations since price is the only thing that pays. Models work until they don’t, and no one rings a bell when it is time to sell. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

Recent government reports (PPI/CPI) indicate inflation is slowing, suggesting the Fed can pivot (lower rates) sooner than later, which weakens the dollar! Fed Funds futures were giving 73% odds that the Fed will pivot and lower rates three times before year-end. However, a few Fed heads on the speaking circuit quashed hopes of a decisive Fed pivot soon. The market digests all these crosscurrents in real-time, so it has been a challenging 2022 and 2023 for investors. The S&P 500 is down about -11%, NASDAQ 100 is down over -19%, and 20-yr Treasury bonds are down over -26% since 12/31/21. We may need some fundamental policy changes in Washington to put us back on a course of growth and prosperity. However, my hope is not in government but in Jesus because He is still on the Throne of Grace, working all things for our good. I believe our Constitution was inspired by God, and His hand of favor is still on us.

The Fed decreased its balance sheet by $18 billion last week and $119 billion since topping on 3/28/23! Recent inflation data indicate the Fed may have tamed inflation and may not need to continue raising rates as previously expected. This could be why the indexes rallied strongly last Thursday. I am encouraged but will let price dictate my actions.

Bottom Line: Gold seems to be pausing a bit to consolidate its recent gains then, I expect gold to continue higher in its new bull market. Earnings are due this week, and I plan to sell any stock before its earnings release to avoid potential surprise drops. While no one knows the future except God, the best anyone can do is analyze the current fundamental and technical charts and position their portfolio accordingly. Historically, equities have outpaced inflation, and I believe there will be more equity bull markets in my lifetime. My job is to minimize losses in bear markets so we can take advantage of the bull market when it arrives. Yesterday, last year and the previous ten years of returns are history, so the only thing that matters is how one is positioned today for tomorrow. I am fully invested in Issachar alongside every shareholder, and I have the most to lose when I am wrong. Therefore, I have been doing my best to actively manage risk since 1990, seeking to avoid life-changing losses. If you know someone who might benefit from an active risk management strategy, please contact me or have them sign up to receive these weekly Market Updates. Next time something unexpected happens, don’t ask God “why” and instead ask God “what should you do.” Grace & Peace to everyone!

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Let us then with confidence draw near to the throne of grace, that we may receive mercy and find grace to help in time of need. Hebrews 4:16

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit   Review Code: 5370-NLD-04/17/23.

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