Market Update: 02-07-22

The Issachar Fund is still 100% in Cash! All the major indexes are trading below their 50-day moving averages, indicating a higher risk environment. The junk bond market tells us that investors may have lost their risk appetite. The 30-year Fed Rate mortgage went from 3.11% to 3.55% this year! That equates to a 14% increase in a 30-year mortgage which could seriously put a damper on new home purchases. Oil prices are up over 16% this year alone, so inflation could be one of the many reasons the NASDAQ is down about 10% in 2022. The 2-yr Treasury yield is now higher than five years ago, so the bond market is trying to tell us something. The Fed told us they plan to raise rates and slow their bond purchases to fight inflation, but their actions are yet to be seen. Imagine what may happen to the stock market if the Fed taps the brakes on rates and money creation. We could have another leg down, which may be why the market is struggling to catch a bid these days. A few sectors like Energy, Transportation, and Agriculture appear to be under accumulation, and I am looking to make some buys but still no conviction. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing, and that takes discipline. Honestly, I would rather miss an opportunity than potentially lose money, so we will stay in Cash until the charts say otherwise. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)

The Fed’s balance sheet INCREASED by $13 billion last week to an all-time high of almost 9 TRILLION! God help us if/when the Fed raises rates and reduces their balance sheet. I would not be surprised to see the Fed walk back its hawkish stance on rates and keep creating money out of nothing to appease the stock market. If the Fed raises rates, bonds will likely decline further, and the cost of servicing $30 trillion of debt will undoubtedly increase. If our interest payments on the $30 trillion of debt rise, then congress will most likely increase the budget, allowing them to raise our taxes even more. I believe the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place they created. It will be interesting to watch what happens in March when they allegedly raise rates to fight “transitory” inflation. I do not see a happy ending for the stock or bond market if they do what they say. I take it one day at a time, studying the price and volume charts of leading stocks. The charts never lie, and when big money decides it is time to head higher, we will see their footprints in the sand. Big money price advances on above-average volume tell us where the market is heading, and right now, it is uncertain, so we patiently wait for more clues.

Bottom Line: I believe this is a tradable market, not an investable one, so we will wait for the stock charts to tell us when to invest. Interest rates are rising, indicating inflation may not be “transitory,” and the stock market is adjusting stock prices accordingly. The oil market is attracting a lot of money, but it appears extended, or is it just getting started. There is no alternative that can replace oil that I am aware of, so $150/barrel is not beyond the realm of possibility. God is sovereign and will never stop loving us, which gives me rest and peace. May God’s Grace & Peace Bless You Today!  

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. Romans 15:13

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Issachar: An Alternative Mutual Fund Managed Like A Hedge Fund!

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.

Important Risk Information: Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in making an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change and are not guaranteed and should not be considered investment advice. For more information regarding the fund, including current performance, please visit   Review Code: 5213-NLD-02/07/2022.

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